Ben Bernanke, Hippie
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: February 28, 2013
We’re just a few weeks away from a milestone I suspect most of
Washington would like to forget: the start of the Iraq war. What I
remember from that time is the utter impenetrability of the elite prowar
consensus. If you tried to point out that the Bush administration was
obviously cooking up a bogus case for war, one that didn’t bear even
casual scrutiny; if you pointed out that the risks and likely costs of
war were huge; well, you were dismissed as ignorant and irresponsible.
It didn’t seem to matter what evidence critics of the rush to war presented: Anyone who opposed the war was, by definition, a foolish hippie. Remarkably, that judgment didn’t change even after everything the war’s critics predicted came true. Those who cheered on this disastrous venture continued to be regarded as “credible” on national security (why is John McCain still a fixture of the Sunday talk shows?), while those who opposed it remained suspect.
And, even more remarkably, a very similar story has played out over the
past three years, this time about economic policy. Back then, all the
important people decided that an unrelated war was an appropriate
response to a terrorist attack; three years ago, they all decided that
fiscal austerity was the appropriate response to an economic crisis
caused by runaway bankers, with the supposedly imminent danger from
budget deficits playing the role once played by Saddam’s alleged weapons
of mass destruction.
Now, as then, this consensus has seemed impenetrable to
counterarguments, no matter how well grounded in evidence. And now, as
then, leaders of the consensus continue to be regarded as credible even
though they’ve been wrong about everything (why do people keep treating
Alan Simpson as a wise man?), while critics of the consensus are
regarded as foolish hippies even though all their predictions — about
interest rates, about inflation, about the dire effects of austerity —
have come true.
So here’s my question: Will it make any difference that Ben Bernanke has now joined the ranks of the hippies?
Earlier this week, Mr. Bernanke delivered testimony
that should have made everyone in Washington sit up and take notice.
True, it wasn’t really a break with what he has said in the past or, for
that matter, with what other Federal Reserve officials have been
saying, but the Fed chairman spoke more clearly and forcefully on fiscal
policy than ever before — and what he said, translated from Fedspeak
into plain English, was that the Beltway obsession with deficits is a
terrible mistake.
First of all, he pointed out that the budget picture just isn’t very
scary, even over the medium run: “The federal debt held by the public
(including that held by the Federal Reserve) is projected to remain
roughly 75 percent of G.D.P. through much of the current decade.”
He then argued that given the state of the economy, we’re currently
spending too little, not too much: “A substantial portion of the recent
progress in lowering the deficit has been concentrated in near-term
budget changes, which, taken together, could create a significant
headwind for the economic recovery.”
Finally, he suggested that austerity in a depressed economy may well be
self-defeating even in purely fiscal terms: “Besides having adverse
effects on jobs and incomes, a slower recovery would lead to less actual
deficit reduction in the short run for any given set of fiscal
actions.”
So the deficit is not a clear and present danger, spending cuts in a
depressed economy are a terrible idea and premature austerity doesn’t
make sense even in budgetary terms. Regular readers may find these
propositions familiar, since they’re pretty much what I and other
progressive economists have been saying all along. But we’re
irresponsible hippies. Is Ben Bernanke? (Well, he has a beard.)
The point is not that Mr. Bernanke is an unimpeachable source of wisdom;
one hopes that the collapse of Alan Greenspan’s reputation has put an
end to the practice of deifying Fed chairmen. Mr. Bernanke is a fine
economist, but no more so than, say, Columbia’s Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel
laureate and legendary economic theorist whose vocal criticism of our
deficit obsession has nonetheless been ignored. No, the point is that
Mr. Bernanke’s apostasy may help undermine the argument from authority —
nobody who matters disagrees! — that has made the elite obsession with
deficits so hard to dislodge.
And an end to deficit obsession can’t come a moment too soon. Right now
Washington is focused on the idiocy of the sequester, but this is only the latest episode in an unprecedented run of declines
in public employment and government purchases that have crippled our
economy’s recovery. A misguided elite consensus has led us into an
economic quagmire, and it’s time for us to get out.
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